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Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial for projecting the evolution of an infectious disease epidemic and for guiding …

Piero Birello, Michele Re Fiorentin, Boxuan Wang (王博玄), Vittoria Colizza, Eugenio Valdano

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those …

Benjamin Steinegger, Iacopo Iacopini, Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Alberto Bracci, Pau Casanova-Ferrer, Alberto Antonioni, Eugenio Valdano

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Twenty-six million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa; epidemics are widely dispersed, due to high levels of mobility. …

Eugenio Valdano, Justin T. Okano, Vittoria Colizza, Honore K. Mitonga, Sally Blower

Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study

Background

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission …

Marius Gilbert, Giulia Pullano, Francesco Pinotti, Eugenio Valdano, Chiara Poletto, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Eric D'Ortenzio, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Serge Paul Eholie, Mathias Altmann, Bernardo Gutierrez, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Vittoria Colizza

Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study